A song called "Earrings" by Malcolm Todd shot to No. 1 on Spotify's US chart for the first time in late June. Days later Spotify wiped about 500,000 of its streams and dropped the song to fourth, saying the plays were artificial.
Here is the part that sounds made up. You can now bet real money on which song runs up the most Spotify streams in a month, on a licensed trading site called Kalshi. A Kalshi trader flagged the pattern, and the Financial Times reported on the episode. Spotify confirmed the plays were artificial but has not said who created them or why.
Either way, the padded count settled a Kalshi market on the month's most-streamed song before Spotify finished investigating and corrected the chart.
So a real payout may have gone out on numbers Spotify later called fake. Spotify says only that the streams were manipulated and that it does not pay royalties on plays it flags that way. Malcolm Todd is not believed to be involved. His streams had climbed about 70% in a day, an unusually sharp jump that drew scrutiny from traders and reporters.
Spotify stream removal, Kalshi market settlement
Betting on the charts
Kalshi lets people wager real money on real-world outcomes, from elections to sports to, now, pop charts. It is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the agency that watches these markets. That oversight is why this stings. A legal, watched market paid out on a number that turned out to be junk.
Spotify has pushed back publicly. It asked both Kalshi and Polymarket, another betting market, to strip the Spotify logo from their sites, and said it has never partnered with either. A source told The Hollywood Reporter that Spotify will now add extra checks on the charts before they go public.
Why it keeps happening
This is not the first prediction market to raise integrity alarms. In January, a well-timed Polymarket wager on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro drew scrutiny, and a US soldier later pleaded not guilty to charges alleging he bet using classified details of the mission.
Once you can bet cash on an outcome, some people will look for a way to bend it. Pop charts used to be a bragging contest. Now they move money, and that changes who wants to game them.
